If You Could Turn Back Time
By Guest Blogger Ron Bishow
Fantasy football has long been dominated by running backs.
At least nine of the first ten picks are going to be running backs, and in the second round you will usually see another six or seven go before you see another position come off the board. This season it was LaDainian Tomlinson, Larry Johnson and Stephen Jackson as the unanimous top three, with Frank Gore running close behind.
All seemed like great choices at the time, all four had huge 2006 seasons after all, but if you could go back in time with what the knowledge of what has happened over the first seven weeks of this season and do the fantasy draft over again I bet it would look quite different. In fact it wouldn’t even be a running back that would go first overall in the draft.
It would be Tom Brady.
A quarterback No.1 overall, that is blasphemy! I know that is what you’re saying, but in times when reason eludes that is when you go with the absolute, math.
Through seven weeks of the 2007 season Brady has 27 touchdown passes, which means he is on pace for 61 touchdowns and 4,857 yards. Even if he, just say, averages only three TDs a game the rest of the season (his low for the year) he would have 54 touchdowns.
LaDainian Tomlinson’s fantasy dream season last year came on the strength of 33 combined touchdowns – running, receiving and passing – and 2,323 combined yards. Shaun Alexander the season previous was the fantasy stud with his 27 rushing touchdowns and 1,880 rushing yards. It’s not even close.
What is even more amazing is that Brady in the average fantasy draft didn’t go before the third round, and why would he? He has always been a winner and a solid QB but he had never even thrown for 30 TDs in a season before this one. Carson Palmer and Drew Brees both went before him in most drafts, and of course Peyton Manning who has long been the only QB that ever goes in the first round of a fantasy draft among the running backs.
Manning’s best year was in 2004 with 4,557 passing yards and a record 49 touchdown passes. Those numbers seem familiar don’t they? They are right around where Brady is going to end up this season, which is amazing considering how ungodly Brady seems this season that two off games will bring him right down to Manning’s 2004 campaign.
I don’t bring this up to make all those people out there who drafted Stephen Jackson, Frank Gore, Lawrence Maroney or Larry Johnson feel bad (I will give the LT owners a reprieve since he is turning it around) but to just reinforce what I have been preaching for years. Running backs should not be the be all. end all of fantasy football.
I get the reasoning, they get the ball in their hands 15-18 times a game at least every game guaranteed, but there is a reason why Manning is always taken in the top 10. When a QB is a guarantee like Peyton he is just worth more. He is a player who never misses a game and consistently produces at an elite level.
In 2003, Manning finished 2nd overall with 350 fantasy points. In 2004, he finished 1st with 497 points and in 2005, Manning finished 3rd overall with 331 points (despite not playing two games). The only other player to be in the Top 10 each of those three seasons is Tomlinson (2003: 4th, 2004: 9th, 2005: 5th). We already discussed what happened last season.
Brady has always been just as durable as Peyton, and on just as dominate of a team. Now he has the weapons to bring him up to the elite numbers producing level with receivers like Randy Moss (who is on pace for 1,673 yards and 23 TDs) and Wes Welker (1,200 yards and 11 TDs).
For comparison Marvin Harrison had 1,113 yards and 15 scores in 2004 and Reggie Wayne had 1,210 yards and 12 touchdowns.
So before you start lining up running backs next season really think about what a QB can do for you. Oh, and if you can go back in time can you put $1000 on the Patriots to win the Super Bowl? Thanks.
Ron Bishow has been reporting on the sports world for the past seven years for AOL, Tribune interactive and CO-ED Magazine among others. He is such a fantasy sports fanatic he plays fantasy NASCAR. He is currently a contributing writer and video producer at www.newyork.metromix.com.
Photo credit: NFL.com
Tags: Fantasy Football Tips, fantasy-football, fantasy-football-advice, fantasy-football-players, fantasy-quarterbacks, new-england-patriots, nfl-football, ron-bishow, tom-bradyRelated Stories
POSTED IN: NFL Player Analysis
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